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ASSETS – modeller meeting (January 14th‐16th, 2013)

On Monday 14th January, Carlos, Felix, Terry and I landed in Bilbao to attend a modelling meeting with the team at the Basque Centre for Climate Change. Despite never-ending torrents of rain, the meeting was extremely productive. We developed a modelling strategy, resolving to use processed-based models to determine the stock of ecosystem services, but an agent-based approach to incorporate the actions of humans. We elect to work at two spatial scales: a village-level scale (relevant to the rural poor); and a sub-national scale (relevant to policy makers). We will adopt the simplest adequate models, maximising the transparency of our models, but ensure they are fully-coupled, enabling possible tipping points as a result of these feedback loops to be identified. Our current modelling strategy enables us to investigate population increases, climate change, changes in land use management, and changes in policy. ASSETS plans to liaise with local policy-makers to ensure that our scenarios are both relevant and useful to those in a position to effect decision-making.

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